Economic Recovery Curves in the New Normal

Take your pick:- INVERTED SQUARE ROOT,J, L, SWOOSH, U, V, W, Z Recovery Curves.

1). Inverted Square Root Recovery
Coined by Fanancier George Soros years ago, he suggested that it would impossible to accurately forecast the Gross Domestic Product increase or decrease as a result of a Crisis. Explained as; there could be a rebound from the bottom in terms of Gross Domestic Product and settles a step down.

2). The J-Shaped Recovery
This is an unrealistic scenario in which growth (GDP) rises sharply from the lows; much higher, and stands still at the trend line.

3). The L-Shaped Recovery
This is the worst case scenario in which growth after falling, stagnates at low levels and doesn’t recover for a long long time.

4). The SWOOSH-Shaped Recovery
Similar to a Nike Logo,in this scenario, after falling, GDP starts recovering quickly but then obstacles hinder its growth technologically which proves a hurdle that gradually moves it back to the trend line. A blend of the V-Shaped and U-Shaped scenario.

5). The U-Shaped Recovery
This is a scenario in which the GDP , after falling, struggles and stagnates around a low growth rate for sometime before gradually rising to usual level.

6). The V-Shaped Recovery
According to most Economists, this is the second best scenario in which the GDP quickly recoups lost ground and gets back to the Normal trend line characterized by a technological advancement.

7). The W-Shaped Recovery
This is a scenario where GDP falls and rises but falls again before recovering steadily yet again. Hence forming a W-Like chart. The double dip depicted by a W-Shaped Recovery is what most Economists consider as a dangerous scenario whereby a second wave of Covid-19 comes along flattering to deceive; appears promising but ultimately disappoints.

8). The Z-Shaped Recovery
Last but not least, this is the most optimistic scenario in which the GDP Curve rises like a SpaceX Launcher after a crash characterized by a steady advancement in technology which appear promising but ultimately disappoints. It more than makes up for lost ground before reverting back to the Normal trend line thus forming a Z-Shaped chart.

The shapes of GDP Recovery Curves is determined by both the speed and direction of the prints depending on the multiple factors including technological advancements, Monetary and Fiscal measures, consumers income and sentiments.
The Kenyan GDP Curve was slowing down even before Covid-19 hit and the trouble has been enlarged because of the cessation to movements and traveling whereby the Air industry has been affected the most with countries forced to Produce and consume internally. Economist predict a Z-Shaped or at least a V-Shaped Recovery to the most preferably case scenarios and if not, we should have a U-Shaped Recovery or a SWOOSH to get back on our feet in a couple of years. On the other hand, a W-Shaped Recovery would bring in a great dip in GDP Curve before eventually rising, while the L-Shaped or the Inverted Square Root Recovery would further dip the GDP Curve.

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